We won’t go into complete detail here, but let’s run down the different data elements we consider, how they are evaluated in terms of EPA, and how they get bundled together. Aaron Donald’s 53 Points Saved in 2018 suggests that he was responsible for reducing his opponents’ scoring by 53 points over the season. On the defensive side, it’s a little bit harder to wrap your mind around, because the scaling is exactly the same but points are bad for the defense. So when you see Patrick Mahomes’ 168 leading quarterbacks in 2018, you could take that as a rough estimate that he contributed just about 10 points per game to the Chiefs’ offense on his own. Then to both reward players who play full seasons and keep the sum of Total Points around what we’d expect a team to score or allow, we scale the results to the league scoring average (around 22 points per game). That’s what we call Points Above Average. Total Points starts by evaluating each player on that scale, where 0 is average. Roughly, you can think of a 0 EPA play as one that “stays on schedule”, an EPA of 1 or more as a big play for the offense, and an EPA of negative-1 or less as a big play for the defense. Take the change in Expected Points on any given play and you get its EPA. Average those values across all instances of the same situation and you get its Expected Points. For example, if the next scoring play is a field goal by the current defensive team two drives from now, you count that as a -3. EPA works by taking any given situation and finding the odds that each different scoring possibility comes next. Does he break a lot of tackles? Does he get a lot of yards after the catch? Does he make the best out of a poor offensive line? Total Points offers the opportunity to take all of those elements and get a quick picture of how well a player is performing overall.Īll of Total Points uses the Expected Points Added (EPA) framework. It’s always useful to be able to understand the different ways in which players can be valuable. Total Points takes nearly everything that SIS measures about a play and uses it to evaluate each player on a scale that allows you to compare them more easily. Pass Plays / Run Plays / Additional Adjustments / How to Use It The most recent set of enhancements were made in December 2020. Total Points exists going back to 2016, when Matt Ryan took home both the MVP and the Total Points crown.Īlso, as updates get added to the system, we’ll add notes in this font to illustrate the most recent enhancements. Those stats are the offensive and defensive versions of the Total Points system, which we introduced at the start of the 2018 NFL season. If you go to any of the Summary leaderboards on the DataHub, you’ll see that the table sorts by one of Total Points Earned or Total Points Saved by default. We’ll be offering lots of tips, tricks, and explanations of the different stats on the site, but let me take some time to talk about one stat (or suite of stats) in particular.
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